Residential real estate market overview Q1 2011

The overview sums up the results of the real estate market development in Q1 2011, including residential real estate market of Russia on the whole, Moscow and Moscow Region, as well as detailed analysis of the elite residential real estate market, enclosing the segments of rent and sale of the city and countryside residential space. 

According to the preliminary data of Moscow State Statistics Service, approx 200 thous. sq.m. were delivered in Moscow for the whole Q1 2011, which is 60% lower than the indices of 2010 and constitutes less than 10% of the total volume of planned for delivery in 2011 residential space. According to the plans of authorities, 2.7 mln. sq.m. of residential space will be delivered in 2011 in the capital.

The primary market in Q1 2011 is characterized with rather active delivery of new projects. This trend was characteristic of the whole last year. However, if in 2010 the market increased mainly with economy-class properties, then in Q1 of the current year, new supply was represented by the properties, belonging to different segments of the market. As of March 2011, the supply volume in the primary market of Moscow amounted to a little bit more than 200 properties or approx 1.2 mln. sq.m.

In the first months of 2011 the primary market of Moscow on the whole displayed stability – the average level of prices by the results of March 2011 remained at the level of December 2010 in ruble equivalent and constituted 168, 800 rubles per sq.m. The analogous index in dollar equivalent amounted to $5, 950 per sq.m., 7.6% increase versus December 2010 was conditioned by the weakening of dollar against ruble. The average price in the secondary residential market was at the level of $6, 430 per sq.m. by the results of May, the increase of the average price for a quarter amounted to 0.6% in rubles and 8% in dollars.

Approximately 1, 050 flats in 35 residential complexes and about 200 apartments in 6 complexes constituted the supply in the elite primary market in march 2011. In Q1 2011, the market enlarged with 6 new residential properties. The demand in the elite residential market of Moscow displayed traditional for the beginning of the year growth. The average price in the elite residential market stayed at the level of December 2010. There is no considerable raise of prices yet, among other things caused by the prohibition of new construction in the center of Moscow.

The beginning of 2011 in the elite rental market was marked by the growth of supply and demand volume. The rental rates continued their growth. Minor drop of rates was noticed in January, however, already by the end of the period the rates recovered practically to the level of the end of 2009. As a result by the end of Q1 2011 the average level of rental rate reached the index of $7, 820 per apartment per month. The decrease for a quarter (caused by January drop of activity) constituted 1%, the annual increase – 9%.

   Q1 2011 did not bring any tangible recovery to the countryside residential real estate market of Moscow Region. However, a number of development companies announced their future plans on the implementation of new countryside projects in different price segments. It should be noted that the delivery of projects offered for sale land plots without compulsory building contracts continued. However, according to Blackwood experts’ estimates, the share of such projects in the total volume of new supply in 2011 will be gradually decreasing, more high-quality and liquid projects will enter the market. 

As far as the wholesale land market of Moscow Region is concerned, during Q1 2011 the general level of the supply price indices stayed stable, minor shifts of the mean value depending on the direction and distance from MKAD were recorded, but they were caused primarily by the changes in the supply structure.