The eleventh edition of the market survey "FMCG Retail Trade Chains in Russia" is devoted to analysis of the development of Russian food retail chains in 2012 and the first half of 2013. Starting from the second half of 2012 retail trade indicators began to slow down and this could not help but impact the performance of food retail chains. The pace of revenue growth decelerated in many chains, while the market continued to consolidate due to the purchase of regional chain assets.
This research report describes the current state of the retail chain market, analyzes key mid-term trends, provides an estimate of the market volume, and offers possible scenarios and forecasts for market expansion from 2013 to 2016 factoring in various growth scenarios of the Russian economy.
The report includes an analysis of changes in retail chain formats (supermarkets, hypermarkets, discounters and neighborhood retailers), the key features of Russian chains (average check, average selling space, size of product range, sales per square meter of selling space, etc). The report also analyzes the current strategies employed by Russian and foreign food retailers, including their advantages and disadvantages.
The following methods were used in conducting research:
- questionnaire survey among retail chains
- desk study
- analysis of Federal Customs Service data
- analysis of State Statistics Agency data
Research conducted from April through July, 2013.
ABSTRACT | 2 | ||
List of figures | 4 | ||
List of tables | 6 | ||
Executive summary | 8 | ||
Russian economic development trends in 2012 and forecast for 2013-2016 | 9 | ||
| Russian economy in 2012 and January-May 2013 | 9 | |
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| Results of January-May 2013 | 11 |
| Forecast for the development of the Russian economy in 2013-2016 | 14 | |
| Development of retail trade in 2011-2012 and forecast for 2013-2016 | 18 | |
Food retail chain market | 20 | ||
| The high-quality retail property market | 22 | |
| KPIs of the food retail market in 2012 | 26 | |
| Market development trends in the medium term | 34 | |
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| Ways to develop retail trade chains | 34 |
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| Food retail logistics | 35 |
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| Consumer behavior and higher food prices | 36 |
| Structure of food retail formats in 2012 | 41 | |
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| Discounters | 43 |
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| Supermarkets | 45 |
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| Hypermarkets/cash & carry | 46 |
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| Neighborhood stores | 47 |
| Key characteristics of Russian retail chains | 50 | |
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| Common characteristics (average selling space, number of staff and footfall rate in stores) | 50 |
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| Range of food and non-food goods | 52 |
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| Private label goods | 53 |
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| Average check and sales per meter of selling space | 56 |
| Ratings of leading retail chains as of year-end 2012 | 57 | |
| M&A deals in the food retail segment | 65 | |
| Medium-term development forecast | 68 | |
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| Main trends in the development of retail trade in Russia in 2013-2016 | 70 |
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| Forecast for the development of formats in 2013-2016 | 74 |
| Regional development of retail chains | 77 | |
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| Macroeconomic indicators | 77 |
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| Central Federal District | 85 |
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| North-West Federal District | 86 |
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| Urals Federal District | 87 |
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| Volga Federal District | 89 |
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| Southern Federal District | 90 |
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| Siberian Federal District | 92 |
Fig. 1. Nominal volume of Russian GDP, Rub trillion, 2006-2012, forecast for 2013-2016 | 15 |
Fig. 2. Comparison of real growth of key performance indicators of the economy, %, 2003-2012, forecast for 2013-2016 | 17 |
Fig. 3. Nominal volume of retail trade in Russia, bn Rub, 2006-2012 and forecast for 2013-2016 | 19 |
Fig. 4. Contribution of trade sector to Russian GDP (derived), % 2004-2012, forecast for 2013-2015 | 20 |
Fig. 5. Structure of retail trade formation by business entities in 2012 (vs. 2011) | 21 |
Fig. 6. Stages of development of Russian food retail | 22 |
Fig. 7. Shopping center selling space - distribution across Russia, as of end 2Q13 and end 2014 | 24 |
Fig. 8. Volume of selling space per 1,000 inhabitants in major Russian cities, 2012 | 25 |
Fig. 9. LFL revenue growth (Rub) of several retail trade chains, %, 2007-2012 | 28 |
Fig. 10. Share of food retail chains in Russian retail sales (Rub), 2006-2012 | 29 |
Fig. 11. Degree of consolidation of food retail in Russia - share of the top 10 companies, 2006-2012 | 30 |
Fig. 12. Revenue growth (Rub) of retailers - distribution by type of chains, %, 2006-2012 | 31 |
Fig. 13. Dynamics of the structure of retail food chain revenue - distribution by type of chain, %, 2005-2012 | 32 |
Fig. 14. Largest food retail market players (share of leading chains in total sales of organized food retail), 2012 | 33 |
Fig. 15. Price dynamics for main food goods, %, 2010-2012 | 38 |
Fig. 16. Growth rate of top 11 retail chain stores*, %, 2008-2012 | 40 |
Fig. 17. Structure of food retail trade based on chain formats, 2005-2012 | 42 |
Fig. 18. Quantitative structure of Russian retail chains in the regions under study - distribution by type of outlets, as of 2Q13 | 43 |
Fig. 19. Dynamics of main parameters in discounter format, %, 2008-2012 | 44 |
Fig. 20. Dynamics of main parameters in supermarket format, %, 2008-2012 | 45 |
Fig. 21. Dynamics of main parameters in hypermarket/cash&carry formats, %, 2008-2012 | 47 |
Fig. 22. Dynamics of main parameters in the neighborhood store format, %, 2008-2012 | 48 |
Fig. 23. Sales growth of main retail trade formats in ruble terms, %, 2007-2012 | 49 |
Fig. 24. Sales turnover of goods in the PL segment of retail food chains operating in Russia, Rub, 2004-2012, forecast for 2013 | 55 |
Fig. 25. Dynamics of M&A deals in the food retail sector, 2004-2012 | 66 |
Fig. 26. Number of M&A deals and average value of deal in the food retail sector, 2004-2012 | 67 |
Fig. 27. Dynamics of key macroeconomic indices for the retail trade sector, %, 2007-2012, forecast for 2013-2016 | 69 |
Fig. 28. Share of retail chains in total food retail sales - forecast for 2013-2016 | 70 |
Fig. 29. Level of consolidation of the food retail chain business in Russia, %, forecast for 2013-2016 | 71 |
Fig. 30. Volume of high-quality warehouses facilities in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Russian regions, 2010-2012, mn sq. m. | 72 |
Fig. 31. Regional structure of high-quality warehouse facilities in Russia, 2012, % | 73 |
Fig. 32. Dynamics of the volume of high-quality warehouse facilities in Russia, 2008-2012, mn sq. m. | 74 |
Fig. 33. Structure of food retail sales by formats of trade chains, forecast for 2013-2016 | 75 |
Fig. 34. Vector of development for the Russian food retail trade market, 2013-2016 | 76 |
Fig. 35. Growth of retail sales by federal districts (% vs. respective period of the previous year in LFL prices), 2009-2012 | 78 |
Fig. 36. Structure of retail sales by federal districts, 2012 | 79 |
Fig. 37. Structure of retail chain sales by federal districts, 2012 | 81 |
Fig. 38. Domination of chains in the federal districts of Russia, distribution by number of stores as of April-May 2013 | 82 |
Table 1. Key performance indicators of the Russian economy, 2009-2012, % change vs. previous year | 9 |
Table 2. Key performance indicators of the Russian economy in January-May 2013, % change vs. the respective period of the previous year | 11 |
Table 3. Average annual exchange rates of major currencies, 2006-2012, forecast for 2013-2015 | 14 |
Table 4. Key forecast indicators of socio-economic development in 2013-2016 (all development scenarios) | 15 |
Table 5. Selling space supply in several Russian cities with a population greater than 1 mn as of the beginning of 2013 | 23 |
Table 6. Growth dynamics of the top 11 FMCG chains (Rub) in 2010-2012 | 26 |
Table 7. Distribution centers of major food retail chains as of the beginning of 2Q13 | 35 |
Table 8. Share of goods from local producers in the product range of several retail trade chains as of April-May 2013, % | 38 |
Table 9. Average selling space of stores, distribution by formats, square meters, 2011-2012 | 50 |
Table 10. Number of staff per store, distribution by formats, 2011-2012 | 51 |
Table 11. Daily number of buyers per store (number of cash register receipts), distribution by formats, 2011-2012 | 52 |
Table 12. Total range of goods, SKU, 2012-2013 | 52 |
Table 13. Range of food products, SKU, 2012-2013 | 52 |
Table 14. Range of non-food products, SKU, 2012-2013 | 53 |
Table 15. Ratio of food and non-food products in the range of goods of a store on average by formats, %, 2012-2013 | 53 |
Table 16. Company leaders by the share of private label goods in chain sales, %, 2012 | 53 |
Table 17. Average check (including VAT) in stores of various formats, Rub, 2011-2012 | 56 |
Table 18. Sales per square meter of selling space per year, Rub, 2011-2012 | 56 |
Table 19. Comparison of average selling space of stores and average sales per square meter, distribution by formats, 2011-2012 | 56 |
Table 20. Rating of retail trade chains by size of sales for 2012 | 57 |
Table 21. Rating of retail trade chains by number of stores as of the beginning of 2Q13 | 59 |
Table 22. Rating of retail trade chains by size of selling space as of the beginning of 2Q13 | 61 |
Table 23. Rating of retail trade chains by number of buyers as of 2012 | 62 |
Table 24. Rating of retail trade chains by size of average check for 2012 | 63 |
Table 25. Rating by sales per square meter of selling space for 2012 | 64 |
Table 26. Dynamics of Russian retail sales by federal districts, %, 2007-2012 | 79 |
Table 27. Largest cities of Russia in terms of population and retail trade turnover per capita in 2012 | 79 |
Table 28. Leading regions in terms of retail food chain volume, Rub mn, 2012 | 81 |
Table 29. Comparison of the largest Russian regions by retail sales and penetration rate of chain retail | 83 |
Table 30. Structure of food retail chains in the Central Federal District, distribution by number of stores, 2012-2013 | 85 |
Table 31. Structure of food retail chains in the North-West Federal District, distribution by the number of stores, 2012-2012 | 87 |
Table 32. Structure of food retail chains in the Urals Federal District - distribution by number of stores, 2012-2013 | 88 |
Table 33. Structure of food retail chains in the Volga Federal District - distribution by number of stores, 2012-2013 | 89 |
Table 34. Structure of food retail chains in the Southern Federal District - distribution by number of stores - 2012 - 2013 | 91 |
Table 35. Structure of food retail chains in the Siberian Federal District - distribution by number of stores, 2012 - 2013 | 92 |
Table 36. Household penetration of chain stores - distribution by regions and store formats (as of April-May 2013) | 93 |
