Commercial real estate market overview Q3 2011

The office real estate market of the Moscow Region has enlarged by 140 thous. sq.m. of new high-quality areas for Q3 2011. All in all, approximately 450 thous. sq.m. have entered the market since the beginning of 2011.

Therefore, the aggregate volume of high-quality supply in the office real estate market reached the index of 11.2 mln. sq.m. as of the end of Q3 2011.

Tenants’ and buyers’ activity stays high during the whole 2011, the absorption volumes exceed the delivery indices of new supply, which affects the further decrease of vacant supply level: by the end of Q3 2011 the share of vacant premises amounted to approx 12-15% in “A” class, and 12-13% in “B” class. The recovery paces of the Central business area submarket are still higher than the average market paces: the level of vacant supply and the price indices have approached the pre-crisis ones as close as possible.

High indices of business activity in the office real estate market stimulate developers’ interest in this segment: it has been announced about the unfreezing of several large projects in Q3 2011. 

The share of requests for rent amounted to 68% against 32% requests for purchase among all the incoming requests to Blackwood for Q3 2011.

“A” and “B+” class properties were of the highest demand both for rent and for purchase in Q3 2011.

Since the beginning of 2011, the growth of rental rates in the market on the whole has amounted to 10-15%, at the same time it is still differentiated considerably depending on the quality and location of projects.

As of the end of Q3 2011, the average weighted rental rates for the office premises depending on the class amounted to: 760$/sq.m. per year in “A” class, 530$/sq.m. per year in “B+” class, 380$/per year in “B-” class (all the rates are indicated exclusive of VAT and OPEX).

During Q3 2011, no new professional retail center has been opened in Moscow. As the result, the high-quality supply volume stayed at the level reached in Q1: the total retail area amounted to 5.98 mln. sq.m., the rentable area reached 3.03 mln.sq.m. Therefore, the provision of Moscow residents with high-quality retail areas is still at the level of 289 sq.m. per 1000 residents.

An important project was the announced in Q3 2011 project of an outlet-center in the Kievskoe highway within 8 km from MKAD. Vnukovo Outlet Village measuring about 47,000 sq.m. provides for the location of 150 stores.  

An important event of Q3 2011 was the opening of the first in Russia lingerie and accessories store Victoria’s Secret in “MEGA Teply Stan” REC. The area of the store amounts to 100 sq.m., the collection of presented goods is limited as opposed to American analogues: only perfume and cosmetics of the brand, as well as a number of lingerie and accessories collections will be on sale for a while.

During Q1-3 2011, the trends formed at the end of 2010 could be observed in the professional retail real estate market: the level of vacant areas was in the process of declining, the rental rates stabilized. The most sought-after among tenants retail centers and the most prestigious retail streets displayed a gradual growth of rates by 5-10% versus the end of 2010.

The observed during Q1-3 2011 revival of developers’ activity is indicative of the professional retail real estate market recovery. Nevertheless, the slowdown of new supply delivery paces is expected in the short-term, which will contribute to the high-quality supply deficit growth, and, as a consequence, to the growth of rental rates and further decline of vacant premises level.   

During Q1-3 2011, the new supply in the hotel market of Moscow increased more than by 600 rooms. At the same time the main increase was observed in Q2, while in Q3 2011 no new hotel property was opened. During Q1 2011, two hotels under international hotel operators’ management were opened in regional cities:  Courtyard by Marriott in Kazan (4*, 150 rooms) and Ibis in Nizhny Novgorod (3*, 220 rooms).  

International hotel operators remained active in the Russian market. During Q1-3 2011, 7 hotels under international operators’ management with the summary hotel room capacity of 1, 390 rooms were opened.

A gradual decline of new supply increase paces could be  noted as the main stable trend of last years in the hotel market of Moscow. The preservation of this trend during the next years will provide support to the increase of supply deficit, which, in its turn, will cause a new price upsurge.