Project concept. Conducting daily monitoring and studying in detail the Russian economy and its certain segments for over 20 years, INFOLine experts arrived at the idea of creating a unique product - an integrated line of studies of key economic sectors in Russia.
Analytical materials include the dynamics of industry development over the past 7 years and development prospects for the next three years in the following areas:
The studies have a common structure, and this makes it possible not only to obtain detailed information about the state and prospects of an industry, but also to analyze and compare development indicators of industries among themselves.
PLEASE NOTE! The studies are issued in an innovative format, as a convenient electronic presentation. This is the optimal format, which, in addition to analytical texts, includes numerous graphic materials (charts and graphs), as well as hyperlinks to essential documents and corporate websites.
Relevance of the study. "Transport Industry of Russia. Results of 2018. Trends for 2019. Development Prospects up to 2021". The Russian transport system is one of the longest in the world, but its significant drawback is its radial nature, which has formed historically due to the political development of the country as a highly-centralized state. The insufficiently favorable layout of waterways, relative remoteness of building stone deposits from populated areas (to create horse-drawn and motor roads), long distances, and complete nationalization of the economy in the USSR contributed to the hypertrophied role of Russian railways at the expense of other transport modes.
The state of the transport industry is closely interconnected with the situation in other industries — e.g. the production dynamics of cargo-generating industries significantly affect the dynamics of freight transportation — and with macroeconomic events. For example, sanctions imposed against Russia in 2014 affected the transportation market, and, the market of refrigerated food transportation from Europe was disproportionately badly affected by the food embargo. At the same time, the volume of transportation to the countries of the Customs Union and Asia has significantly increased. Transport companies were forced to intensely optimize transportation costs and logistics costs under new conditions. The structure of transport and logistics flows has changed: it has become more profitable to use road transport instead of rail in some areas or sea transport instead of air transport in others. In 2017, intensified coal exports determined the dynamics of rail transport shipments. The growth in coal and grain exports in 2017 had a positive effect on the dynamics of dry cargo transshipment in Russian seaports. In 2018, the growth trend of loading and cargo turnover on the Russian Railways network, primarily coal, ferrous metals, timber cargo and grain, continued.
In order to analyze the state of the transport industry and understand the path along which it will develop further, we conducted an extensive study of the industry covering all its segments. The proposed product can help you determine the position of your own company regarding the industry dynamics and outline possible ways of business development.
Applications of study results: marketing and strategic planning, transport market analysis, benchmarking and competitive analysis of companies.
Study timeframe: dynamics of various industry indicators since 2011 (volume of goods and passenger transportation in general and by different transport modes, freight turnover and passenger traffic in the industry as a whole and by different transport modes, dynamics of the freight car fleet, tariff indexation, etc.), development prospects in 2019-2021 years (macroeconomic indicators of Russia, implementation of individual investment projects, regulatory changes).
Study period: H1 2019
Study objectives and structure by sections:
Part I. Transport industry performance indicators: Macroeconomic indicators of the transport industry: transportation of goods and cargo turnover by transport modes; indexation of freight rates; debt of enterprises in the fields of transport and communications on bank loans in rubles and foreign currency, lending to transport organizations; granting loans to companies in the fields of transport and communications; Passenger turnover by transport modes; passenger turnover structure by transport modes; dynamics and structure of Russia's GDP.
Part II. Transport industry milestones: Monitoring of the most important regulatory changes in the transport sector: state regulation and support; international activity; major investment projects; largest M&A deals; resignations and appointments.
Part III. Rail transport. Transportation volume and cargo turnover; structure of freight transportation and cargo turnover of railway transport; freight transportation by rail by profitability segments; structure of freight transportation by rail by profitability segments; container traffic volume, leading container ship operators; dynamics of the average shipment delivery speed. Dynamics and forecast of the railway rolling stock fleet: fleet of freight cars; purchases and decommissioning. Major investment projects of railway transport. INFOLINE RAIL RUSSIA TOP Rating: fleet in the management and ownership of TOP-10 operators; cargo turnover and transportation of TOP-10 operators; cargo turnover and carriage per car of TOP-10 operators; revenue with account of railway tariff, net profit of TOP-10 operators; revenue per car of TOP-10 operators; revenue per tkm of cargo turnover of TOP-10 operators.
Part IV. Road transport. Main indicators of road transport: Transportation and cargo turnover of road transport; Road haulage and forecast, Commercial road freight turnover and forecast. Major investment projects in the road transport industry.
Part V. Water transport: Main indicators of sea transport: transshipment of cargo in the Russian sea ports; sea transport cargo turnover in Russia; cargo turnover of inland water transport in Russia; cargo shipping by inland water transport; Port ratings: cargo turnover of TOP-10 Russian ports. Forecast of cargo transportation and river transport cargo turnover. Investment projects for ports and terminals.
Part VI. Air transport. Main indicators of air transport: Passenger turnover of air transport; transportation of passengers by air. Rating of airlines: Rating of airports; transportation of goods and mail by TOP-10 Russian airlines; cargo turnover of TOP-10 Russian airlines; passenger transportation of TOP-10 Russian airlines; passenger turnover of TOP-10 Russian airlines. Airport investment projects.
Part VII. Rating and description of logistics companies. INFOLine Logistic Russia TOP Rating: financial and operational indicators; traffic volume, revenue, gross profit and profitability, net profit margin, revenue margin; staff strength and company productivity.
Part VIII. Development prospects of the transport industry: description of transport industry development scenarios up to 2021 and forecast for shipments, cargo turnover, and transport industry development in 2019-2021.
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Part I. Transport Industry Performance Indicators
1.1. GDP Dynamics and Breakdown
1.2. Cargo Transportation and Cargo Turnover
1.3 Tariffs Setting
1.4. Lending to Transport Organizations
1.5. Passenger Transportation
Part II. Transport Industry Milestones
2.1. Government Regulation and Industry Support
2.2. International Activity
2.3. Largest M&A Deals
Part III. Railway Transport
3.1. Main Indicators
3.1.1. Main Indicators of Railway Transport Segments
3.1.2. Rolling Stock Fleet Dynamics and Forecast
3.1.3. Rating of Rolling Stock Manufacturers
3.1.4. Freight Car Turnover and Locomotive Deliveries to Russian Railways OJSC (RZD)
3.1.5. Investment Projects in Railway Infrastructure Construction
3.2. INFOLine Rail Russia TOP Rating and Operating Company Profiles
3.2.1. INFOLine Rail Russia TOP Rating of Railway Operators
3.2.2. Rolling Stock Procurement Plans for 2019
3.3. Сar fleet of the Russian Federation: demand and offer, purchase and decommissioning
Part IV. Road Transport
4.1. Main Indicators of Road Transport
4.2. Forecast of Cargo Transportation and Road Transport Freight Turnover
4.3. Investment Projects in Road Construction
Part V. Water Transport
5.1. Main Indicators of Water Transport
5.2. Port Rating
5.3. Dynamics of Cargo Transportation and Cargo Turnover
5.4. Investment Projects in Ports and Terminals
Part VI. Air Transport
6.1. Main Indicators in Air Transport
6.2. Airline Rating
6.3. Airport Rating
6.4. Investment Projects in Airports
Part VII. Rating and Description of Logistics Companies
7.1. INFOLine Logistic Russia TOP Rating
Part VIII. Transport Industry Development Forecast
8.1. Dynamics and Forecast of Russia's Macroeconomic Indicators
8.2. Scenario of Russia's Social and Economic Development
8.3 Consensus Forecast Russia's Macroeconomic Indicators
8.4. INFOLine Transport Industry Development Scenarios
8.5. Forecast of Railway Transport Shipments and Cargo Turnover
8.6. Transport Industry Development Forecast
Branch Ministries, Departments, Associations
List of Sources
List of Abbreviations
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