This report aims to describe the most recent trends and development prospects on the Russian transportation and logistics market. This is the second time such a study is being carried out.
The research provides a detailed analysis of the situation on the global and Russian national transportation and logistics market in 2006, presents the key characteristics of the market, including its size and structure, and contains an assessment of the sector's growth prospects until 2012.
A separate section of the review is entirely dedicated to the description of the global logistics market, which includes an analysis of the main segments of the US and European logistics outsourcing market, and lists the operating results of Europe's leading 3PL operators in 2006, as well as providing the chronology of mergers and acquisitions on the European market in 2004-2007.
The description of Russia's transportation and logistics market is divided into five subsections: general market characteristics, freight market, international goods flow, warehousing services, and competitive environment. The study provides an assessment of the market's size in terms of volume and value, as well as projects and the further development of the market as a whole and its segments until 2012.
The section allotted to the analysis of international freight operation in Russia, provides data on the dynamics and structure of foreign trade flows in 2004-2006, analyzing the changes which have occurred over the past two years on the Russian container shipping market, and includes a development forecast until 2012.
The fifth part analyzes the supply and demand structure of the Russian warehousing market, with special emphasis on the situation in Russian regions.
The sixth section probes the Russian transportation and logistics market's strengths and weaknesses, taking into account global trends and the main factors affecting competition, as well as the prospects of the market's consolidation and growth. Moreover, the research provides strategies from Russia's leading market participants, including western logistics companies.
The research was carried out in February-May 2007.
Report size - 137 pages.
The report contains 25 tables and 70 figures.
The original language of the report is Russian.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SYNOPSIS 3FULL TABLE OF CONTENTS 4
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF TABLES 8SUMMARY 9
GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS MARKET 10
Market dynamics and structure 10
Factors affecting supply and demand formation 10
Transportation and logistics market volume and structure 13
US market 16
Freight forwarding 16
Warehousing 17
European market 17
Market size and major players 17
Mergers and acquisitions 20
German market 24
RUSSIAN TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS MARKET 27
Main trends in 2005-2006 27
Market size and structure 28
Growth drivers 31
GDP, industrial production, and retail sales dynamics 31
Trends in foreign trade 33
Transportation and logistics market growth forecast until 2012 38
RUSSIAN FREIGHT MARKET 41
Freight market structure and dynamics 41
Rail freight 44
Russian Railways 44
Private owners and rolling stock operators 47
Road freight 49
Sea and inland waterway freight 51
Maritime freight 51
Freight by inland waterways 52
Air freight 53
Market growth projections 56
INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT TRAFFIC IN RUSSIA 62
International freight traffic characteristics 62
Export and import freight structure 62
Dynamics and structure of freight traffic by type of transportation 65
Container shipping 71
Market size and dynamics 71
Geographic breakdown 75
Containerization by mode 77
Russian container shipping market's development potential 84
RUSSIAN LOGISTICS MARKET 86
Supply and demand on warehousing and distribution services market 86
Moscow region 89
St. Petersburg 94
Regional markets 97
Volga Federal District 100
Southern Federal District 107
Urals Federal District 113
Siberian Federal District 118
Market growth prospects 121
COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT 126
General characteristics 126
Global 3PL providers' operations in Russia 129
Leading Russian players 132
GLOSSARY 137
LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 1. Economic and GDP growth in countries of particular relevance in 2004-2007, % 10
Fig. 2. Global transportation and logistics market growth in 2005-2007, EUR bln 13
Fig. 3. Global transportation and logistics market structure in 2006, % 14
Fig. 4. Geography of global transportation and logistics market in 2006, % 16
Fig. 5. Europe’s top 10 logistics companies by revenue in 2004-2006, EUR bln 19
Fig. 6. Geographic breakdown of Europe's logistics market in 2005, % 24
Fig. 7. Revenue breakdown in Germany’s logistics industry in 2006, % 25
Fig. 8. Germany's transportation and logistics market in 2001-2006, EUR mln 25
Fig. 9. Russian transportation and logistics market growth in 2004-2006, $ bln 28
Fig. 10. Russian transportation and logistics market growth by segments in 2004-2006, $ bln 29
Fig. 11. Russian transportation and logistics market by types of services in 2006, % 30
Fig. 12. Russian GDP in 2000-2006, $ bln 32
Fig. 13. GDP, industrial production, retail sales growth in Russia in 2002-2006 and forecast until 2012, % 33
Fig. 14. Russia’s foreign trade in 2002-2006, $ bln 34
Fig. 15. Russia’s exports by product group in 2006 (2005), % 35
Fig. 16. Geography of Russian exports in value terms in 2006, % 35
Fig. 17. Russian imports by product category in 2006 (2005), % 36
Fig. 18. Geography of Russian imports (in value terms) in 2006, % 37
Fig. 19. Russia’s export and import forecasts for 2006-2012, $bln 38
Fig. 20. Russian transportation and logistics market by types of services in 2012 (forecast), % 39
Fig. 21. Growth forecast for Russian transportation and logistics market segments in 2006-2012, $ bln 39
Fig. 22. Commercial freight operations in Russia in 2006 by mode, % 41
Fig. 23. Commercial freight traffic in Russia in 2006 by mode, % 42
Fig. 24. Projected growth in rail freight volume (Russian Railways) in 2004-2012, mln tonnes and bln tonne-kilometers 47
Fig. 25. Commercial road freight traffic growth forecast in Russia in 2006-2010, bln tonne-kilometers 51
Fig. 26. Estimated growth of Russia’s commercial sea freight traffic in 2006-2010, bln tonne-kilometers 52
Fig. 27. Forecast inland waterways freight growth in Russia, 2006-2010, bln tonne-kilometers 53
Fig. 28. Russian airlines’ shares in total air freight and mail carriage in 2005, % 55
Fig. 29. Russia’s commercial freight traffic growth forecast by mode (the Russian Economy Ministry’s optimistic scenario) in 2006-2010, bln tonne-kilometers 58
Fig. 30. Estimated changes in Russia’s commercial freight traffic structure by mode (the Russian Economy Ministry’s optimistic scenario) in 2006-2010, % 58
Fig. 31. Projected changes in the structure of freight traffic of Russia’s transportation companies in 2006-2012, % 59
Fig. 32. Russian freight market structure by mode in 2006, % 60
Fig. 33. Projected growth on the Russian freight market by mode in 2006-2012, $bln 60
Fig. 34. Russian freight market structure by mode in 2012 (forecast), % 61
Fig. 35. Russia’s international freight traffic in 2003-2006, mln tonnes 62
Fig. 36. Structure of Russia’s export freight by destination, 2006, % 63
Fig. 37. Russia’s largest regions by export shipment, 2006, % 63
Fig. 38. Structure of Russia’s freight import, 2006, % 64
Fig. 39. Structure of Russia’s freight import by country of origin, 2006, % 64
Fig. 40. Russia’s largest regions by import freight, 2006, % 65
Fig. 41. Structure of Russia’s freight export and import (by amount of transported freight, excluding goods transported by pipelines through border crossings), 2006, % 65
Fig. 42. Dynamics of transshipment of Russia’s international freight through the ports of Russia and neighboring countries, 2000-2006, mln tonnes 67
Fig. 43. Dynamics of Aeroflot’s freight traffic, 2001-2006, mln tonnes 68
Fig. 44. Road freight traffic between Russia and foreign countries, 2004-2006, mln tonnes 70
Fig. 45. Russia's international container shipping in 2003-2006, '000 tonnes 72
Fig. 46. Import containerization in Russia in 2003-2006, % 73
Fig. 47. Containerized import traffic in Russian in physical volume and value terms in 2003-2006, '000 tonnes and $mln 73
Fig. 48. Structure of Russia's containerized imports in 2006, % 74
Fig. 49. Russia's containerized import breakdown by manufacturing nation in 2006, % 75
Fig. 50. Russia's containerized import traffic by shipping country in 2006, % 76
Fig. 51. Shipments of goods manufactured in the EU vs. overall shipments from EU to Russia in 2006, '000 tonnes 76
Fig. 52. Russia's containerized export traffic growth by receiving country in 2006, % 77
Fig. 53. Russia's international container shipping operations in 2006 (by mode at state border), % 78
Fig. 54. Russian container shipping market in 2006 (2005) by volume of international freight handled by ports and rail, % 78
Fig. 55. Russian container freight traffic handled by ports in 2004-2006, TEU mln 79
Fig. 56. Russian container shipping market structure in 2005-2006 (by volume of international freight handled by ports), % 79
Fig. 57. Key containerized international freight shipping regions in 2006, % 83
Fig. 58. Key Russian regions receiving containerized international freight in 2006, % 83
Fig. 59. Russian container shipping market growth forecast in 2004-2012, TEU mln 84
Fig. 60. Russian warehousing services market in 2004-2006, ‘000 sq. m. 88
Fig. 61. Supply of quality warehouse facilities in Moscow and the Moscow region in 2004-2007, '000 sq. m. 89
Fig. 62. Moscow and the Moscow region's warehousing services market in 2004-2006, '000 sq. m. 91
Fig. 63. Moscow's warehouse property market leaders by value of projects already implemented, under construction, and at the conceptual design stage in 2006, '000 sq. m.(estimate) 94
Fig. 64. Quality warehousing facilities available in St. Petersburg in 2004-2007, ‘000 sq. m. 95
Fig. 65. St. Petersburg’s warehousing services market, 2004-2006, ‘000 sq. m. 97
Fig. 66. Warehousing services market in Russian regions in 2004-2006, '000 sq.m. 98
Fig. 67. Warehousing services market growth forecast for Moscow and the Moscow region, 2004-2012, ‘000 sq. m. 122
Fig. 68. Regional warehousing services market growth prospects (including St. Petersburg), 2004-2012, ‘000 sq. m. 123
Fig. 69. Russian warehousing services market growth forecast (quality warehouses), 2004-2012, ‘000 sq. m. 124
Fig. 70. Russian warehousing services market size growth forecast, 2004-2012, $ bln 125
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Factors affecting the creation of supply and demand on the global transportation and logistics services market. 12Table 2. Economic growth and logistics outsourcing in the EU in 2001-2008 17
Table 3. Financial results of leading logistics service providers in 2006 20
Table 4. Chronology of mergers and acquisitions on the European logistics market in 2004-2007 22
Table 5. M&A activity on the European market in 1999-2007 23
Table 6. Commercial freight traffic dynamics in Russia by mode in 2004-2006, bln tonne-kilometers 42
Table 7. Russian shipping services market (by freight traffic) in 2005, bln tonne-kilometers 43
Table 8. Russian Railways’ main performance figures in 2001-2006 46
Table 9. Russia’s air freight in 2004-2006, ‘000 tonnes 54
Table 10. Rating of Russia’s leading airlines by volume of freight and mail carriage in 2005 55
Table 11. Russia’s commercial freight traffic growth by all modes (the Russian Economy Ministry’s optimistic forecast) in 2006-2010, % 57
Table 12. Directions of freight traffic by Russian Railways, 2004-2005 66
Table 13. Volga-Dnepr group’s key indicators, 2004-2005. 69
Table 14. Structure of Russia’s international road freight traffic by groups of carriers, 2003-2006, % 70
Table 15. Level of containerization of basic commodities in Russia in 2005 74
Table 16. Russian container shipping market in 2005-2006 (by volume of international freight handled by ports), '000 TEU 80
Table. 17. Russia's container traffic along main border crossing routes in 2003-2005, '000 tonnes 82
Table 18. Top 15 developers by warehouse complex space at the conceptual stage in the Moscow region in 2006 93
Table 19. Key operating and construction-in-progress quality warehouses in the Nizhny Novgorod region in 2006 100
Table 20. Key operating and construction-in-progress quality warehouses in the Samara region in 2006 105
Table 21. Major high-quality storage facilities of the Rostov region, both existing and under construction, 2006. 108
Table 22. Key operating and construction-in-progress quality warehouses in the Sverdlovsk region in 2006. 114
Table 23. Main quality warehouses in operation and underway in the Novosibirsk region, 2006 119
Table 24. Key drivers of increasing Russian regions' importance as consumers and producers of transportation and logistics services. 128
Table 25. International companies operating on the Russian logistics market 129
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