Russian transportation and logistics market: 2006 results and prospects up to 2012

Fig. 1. Economic and GDP growth in countries of particular relevance in 2004-2007, % 10

Fig. 2. Global transportation and logistics market growth in 2005-2007, EUR bln 13

Fig. 3. Global transportation and logistics market structure in 2006, % 14

Fig. 4. Geography of global transportation and logistics market in 2006, % 16

Fig. 5. Europe’s top 10 logistics companies by revenue in 2004-2006, EUR bln 19

Fig. 6. Geographic breakdown of Europe's logistics market in 2005, % 24

Fig. 7. Revenue breakdown in Germany’s logistics industry in 2006, % 25

Fig. 8. Germany's transportation and logistics market in 2001-2006, EUR mln 25

Fig. 9. Russian transportation and logistics market growth in 2004-2006, $ bln 28

Fig. 10. Russian transportation and logistics market growth by segments in 2004-2006, $ bln 29

Fig. 11. Russian transportation and logistics market by types of services in 2006, % 30

Fig. 12. Russian GDP in 2000-2006, $ bln 32

Fig. 13. GDP, industrial production, retail sales growth in Russia in 2002-2006 and forecast until 2012, % 33

Fig. 14. Russia’s foreign trade in 2002-2006, $ bln 34

Fig. 15. Russia’s exports by product group in 2006 (2005), % 35

Fig. 16. Geography of Russian exports in value terms in 2006, % 35

Fig. 17. Russian imports by product category in 2006 (2005), % 36

Fig. 18. Geography of Russian imports (in value terms) in 2006, % 37

Fig. 19. Russia’s export and import forecasts for 2006-2012, $bln 38

Fig. 20. Russian transportation and logistics market by types of services in 2012 (forecast), % 39

Fig. 21. Growth forecast for Russian transportation and logistics market segments in 2006-2012, $ bln 39

Fig. 22. Commercial freight operations in Russia in 2006 by mode, % 41

Fig. 23. Commercial freight traffic in Russia in 2006 by mode, % 42

Fig. 24. Projected growth in rail freight volume (Russian Railways) in 2004-2012, mln tonnes and bln tonne-kilometers 47

Fig. 25. Commercial road freight traffic growth forecast in Russia in 2006-2010, bln tonne-kilometers 51

Fig. 26. Estimated growth of Russia’s commercial sea freight traffic in 2006-2010, bln tonne-kilometers 52

Fig. 27. Forecast inland waterways freight growth in Russia, 2006-2010, bln tonne-kilometers 53

Fig. 28. Russian airlines’ shares in total air freight and mail carriage in 2005, % 55

Fig. 29. Russia’s commercial freight traffic growth forecast by mode (the Russian Economy Ministry’s optimistic scenario) in 2006-2010, bln tonne-kilometers 58

Fig. 30. Estimated changes in Russia’s commercial freight traffic structure by mode (the Russian Economy Ministry’s optimistic scenario) in 2006-2010, % 58

Fig. 31. Projected changes in the structure of freight traffic of Russia’s transportation companies in 2006-2012, % 59

Fig. 32. Russian freight market structure by mode in 2006, % 60

Fig. 33. Projected growth on the Russian freight market by mode in 2006-2012, $bln 60

Fig. 34. Russian freight market structure by mode in 2012 (forecast), % 61

Fig. 35. Russia’s international freight traffic in 2003-2006, mln tonnes 62

Fig. 36. Structure of Russia’s export freight by destination, 2006, % 63

Fig. 37. Russia’s largest regions by export shipment, 2006, % 63

Fig. 38. Structure of Russia’s freight import, 2006, % 64

Fig. 39. Structure of Russia’s freight import by country of origin, 2006, % 64

Fig. 40. Russia’s largest regions by import freight, 2006, % 65

Fig. 41. Structure of Russia’s freight export and import (by amount of transported freight, excluding goods transported by pipelines through border crossings), 2006, % 65

Fig. 42. Dynamics of transshipment of Russia’s international freight through the ports of Russia and neighboring countries, 2000-2006, mln tonnes 67

Fig. 43. Dynamics of Aeroflot’s freight traffic, 2001-2006, mln tonnes 68

Fig. 44. Road freight traffic between Russia and foreign countries, 2004-2006, mln tonnes 70

Fig. 45. Russia's international container shipping in 2003-2006, '000 tonnes 72

Fig. 46. Import containerization in Russia in 2003-2006, % 73

Fig. 47. Containerized import traffic in Russian in physical volume and value terms in 2003-2006, '000 tonnes and $mln 73

Fig. 48. Structure of Russia's containerized imports in 2006, % 74

Fig. 49. Russia's containerized import breakdown by manufacturing nation in 2006, % 75

Fig. 50. Russia's containerized import traffic by shipping country in 2006, % 76

Fig. 51. Shipments of goods manufactured in the EU vs. overall shipments from EU to Russia in 2006, '000 tonnes 76

Fig. 52. Russia's containerized export traffic growth by receiving country in 2006, % 77

Fig. 53. Russia's international container shipping operations in 2006 (by mode at state border), % 78

Fig. 54. Russian container shipping market in 2006 (2005) by volume of international freight handled by ports and rail, % 78

Fig. 55. Russian container freight traffic handled by ports in 2004-2006, TEU mln 79

Fig. 56. Russian container shipping market structure in 2005-2006 (by volume of international freight handled by ports), % 79

Fig. 57. Key containerized international freight shipping regions in 2006, % 83

Fig. 58. Key Russian regions receiving containerized international freight in 2006, % 83

Fig. 59. Russian container shipping market growth forecast in 2004-2012, TEU mln 84

Fig. 60. Russian warehousing services market in 2004-2006, ‘000 sq. m. 88

Fig. 61. Supply of quality warehouse facilities in Moscow and the Moscow region in 2004-2007, '000 sq. m. 89

Fig. 62. Moscow and the Moscow region's warehousing services market in 2004-2006, '000 sq. m. 91

Fig. 63. Moscow's warehouse property market leaders by value of projects already implemented, under construction, and at the conceptual design stage in 2006, '000 sq. m.(estimate) 94

Fig. 64. Quality warehousing facilities available in St. Petersburg in 2004-2007, ‘000 sq. m. 95

Fig. 65. St. Petersburg’s warehousing services market, 2004-2006, ‘000 sq. m. 97

Fig. 66. Warehousing services market in Russian regions in 2004-2006, '000 sq.m. 98

Fig. 67. Warehousing services market growth forecast for Moscow and the Moscow region, 2004-2012, ‘000 sq. m. 122

Fig. 68. Regional warehousing services market growth prospects (including St. Petersburg), 2004-2012, ‘000 sq. m. 123

Fig. 69. Russian warehousing services market growth forecast (quality warehouses), 2004-2012, ‘000 sq. m. 124

Fig. 70. Russian warehousing services market size growth forecast, 2004-2012, $ bln 125

Table 2. Economic growth and logistics outsourcing in the EU in 2001-2008 17

Table 3. Financial results of leading logistics service providers in 2006 20

Table 4. Chronology of mergers and acquisitions on the European logistics market in 2004-2007 22

Table 5. M&A activity on the European market in 1999-2007 23

Table 6. Commercial freight traffic dynamics in Russia by mode in 2004-2006, bln tonne-kilometers 42

Table 7. Russian shipping services market (by freight traffic) in 2005, bln tonne-kilometers 43

Table 8. Russian Railways’ main performance figures in 2001-2006 46

Table 9. Russia’s air freight in 2004-2006, ‘000 tonnes 54

Table 10. Rating of Russia’s leading airlines by volume of freight and mail carriage in 2005 55

Table 11. Russia’s commercial freight traffic growth by all modes (the Russian Economy Ministry’s optimistic forecast) in 2006-2010, % 57

Table 12. Directions of freight traffic by Russian Railways, 2004-2005 66

Table 13. Volga-Dnepr group’s key indicators, 2004-2005. 69

Table 14. Structure of Russia’s international road freight traffic by groups of carriers, 2003-2006, % 70

Table 15. Level of containerization of basic commodities in Russia in 2005 74

Table 16. Russian container shipping market in 2005-2006 (by volume of international freight handled by ports), '000 TEU 80

Table. 17. Russia's container traffic along main border crossing routes in 2003-2005, '000 tonnes 82

Table 18. Top 15 developers by warehouse complex space at the conceptual stage in the Moscow region in 2006 93

Table 19. Key operating and construction-in-progress quality warehouses in the Nizhny Novgorod region in 2006 100

Table 20. Key operating and construction-in-progress quality warehouses in the Samara region in 2006 105

Table 21. Major high-quality storage facilities of the Rostov region, both existing and under construction, 2006. 108

Table 22. Key operating and construction-in-progress quality warehouses in the Sverdlovsk region in 2006. 114

Table 23. Main quality warehouses in operation and underway in the Novosibirsk region, 2006 119

Table 24. Key drivers of increasing Russian regions' importance as consumers and producers of transportation and logistics services. 128

Table 25. International companies operating on the Russian logistics market 129