Russian transport and logistics services market in 2010-2011 and forecast to 2014

 

Table of contents
Abstract			2
Table of contents			3
Summary			5
Figures			7
Tables			11
Global transport and logistics market			14
	Supply and demand determinants		14
	Market segments		16
		Dynamics and structure of the global transport and logistics services market	16
		International freight transportation	18
		Customs brokerage services	21
		Contract logistics	22
		Geographical structure of the global 3PL market	23
	European market		24
		Dynamics and structure	24
		Major players	26
	Chinese market		29
		Dynamics and structure	29
		Governmental stimulation	30
		Competitive environment	30
Russian transport and logistics market			32
	Russian economy in 2010 and the first half of 2011: recovery from the crisis and growth slowdown		32
	Logistics costs, transport and logistics market, 3PL services: international comparisons		34
	Volume and structure of the logistics outsourcing market		37
	Freight transportation market		43
		Freight transportation dynamics and structure	43
		Value of the transportation services market	47
		Freight transportation by rail	49
		Freight transportation by road	56
		Freight transportation by sea	60
		Transshipments in ports	63
		Inland water transport	68
		Freight transportation by air	71
	International cargo transportation market		75
		Dynamics of foreign trade freight traffic	75
		Structure of export freight traffic	77
		Structure of import freight traffic	81
		Freight transportation dynamics and structure by mode of transport	85
	International container transportation		93
		Structure of export container traffic	95
		Structure of containerized import traffic	98
		Container transshipments in ports	102
		Container transportation by rail	107
		Volume of the container transportation market	109
	Warehousing services market		110
		Demand for warehousing services	110
		Supply of warehousing space	112
		Supply and demand balance, level of rental rates	113
		Volume and structure of the warehousing property and warehousing services market	114
	Competitive environment		120
		Impact of the crisis and post-crisis development	120
		Activity of global 3PL providers in Russia	126
		Leading Russian players	128
Growth potential of the Russian transportation and logistic services market in 2011-2014			130
	Forecast for development of Russia's economy and foreign trade		130
	Freight transportation market		132
	Warehousing services market		135
	Forecast for dynamics of the transportation and logistics services market		138

Figure 1. World economy dynamics in 2007-2012, % 15
Figure 2. World trade volumes, 2007-2012, % 15
Figure 3. Global transport and logistics market, 2006-2011, $ billion 16
Figure 4. Structure of the global transport and logistics services market, 2006-2010, % 17
Figure 5. Volume of the global logistics outsourcing market and 3PL segment, 2006-2011, $ billion 18
Figure 6. Global container transportation volumes, 2005-2011, million TEUs 19
Figure 7. Structure of the global container transportation market control in 2010, % 20
Figure 8. Global airfreight market, 2005-2011, $ billion 21
Figure 9. Global market for customs brokerage services, 2005-2010, € billion, % 22
Figure 10. Global contract logistics market volume, 2005-2011, € billion, % 23
Figure 11. Leading companies in the global contract logistics market, 2009, % of market turnover 23
Figure 12. Geographical structure of the global logistics market and 3PL services segment, 2009, % 24
Figure 13. European transport and logistics market volume, 2006-2011, € billion, % 25
Figure 14. Revenues of TOP 12 European logistics companies, 2006-2010, € billion, % 27
Figure 15. Revenue dynamics of leading European 3PL companies, 2009 to 2008, % 27
Figure 16. Revenue dynamics of leading European 3PL companies, 2010 to 2009, % 28
Figure 17.  TOP 12 European logistics companies by revenue, 2008-2010, € billion 28
Figure 18. Logistics costs structure in China, 2005-2009, % 29
Figure 19. Logistics costs in different countries of the world and Russia, 2009, % of GDP 35
Figure 20. Logistics outsourcing in the world and in Russia, 2009, % of transport and logistics market volume 36
Figure 21. Share of 3PL services in logistics outsourcing in the world and in Russia, 2009, % of transport and logistics market volume 36
Figure 22. Dynamics of the Russian transport and logistics services market (logistics outsourcing), 2007-2011, RUB billion and % 38
Figure 23. Dynamics of the Russian transport and logistics services market (logistics outsourcing), 2007-2011, US$ billion and % 38
Figure 24. Structure of the Russian transport and logistics market by type of services, 2010, % 39
Figure 25. Growth of Russian transport and logistics services market segments, 2010 versus 2008, % 41
Figure 26. Growth of Russian transport and logistics services market segments, 2011 versus 2010, % 41
Figure 27. Structure of commercial freight transportation in Russia by mode of transport, 2010, % 44
Figure 28. Structure of commercial freight turnover in Russia by mode of transport, 2010, % 45
Figure 29. Monthly dynamics of commercial cargo transportation across of sectors of the Russian economy, January 2008 – June 2011, million tons 46
Figure 30. Dynamics of commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover across all sectors of Russian economy by mode of transport, January-June 2011 to January-June 2010, % 47
Figure 31. Value structure of the Russian freight transportation market by mode of public transport, 2009, % 48
Figure 32. Structure of the Russian transportation services market (including revenues from transshipment in ports and airports), 2010, % 49
Figure 33. Structure of tonnage handled on rail by primary types of cargo (RZD), 2010, % 50
Figure 34. Monthly dynamics of freight tonnage handled by rail (commercial transportation, excluding industrial rail transport) in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, million tons 51
Figure 35. Rail freight rate indices in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, % to December of the previous year 52
Figure 36. Structure of the Russian freight railcar fleet, 2009-2010, % 53
Figure 37. Largest owners of freight railcars in Russia (excluding companies belonging to RZD Holding), 2010, thousand units 54
Figure 38. Largest private operators of freight railcars in Russia (own and rented), 2010, thousand units 54
Figure 39. Structure of transportation in Russia by railcar ownership, 2005-2010, % 55
Figure 40. Dynamics of commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover in road transport across all sectors of the Russian economy, 2008–2010, million tons, billion tkm 57
Figure 41. Monthly dynamics of commercial cargo transportation by road transport across all sectors of the Russian economy, January 2008 – June 2011, million tons 58
Figure 42. Road freight rate indices in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, % to December of the previous year 59
Figure 43. Dynamics of the value of the road freight transportation market in Russia, 2007-2010, RUB billion 60
Figure 44. Monthly dynamics of commercial sea freight transportation in Russia, January 2008– June 2011, million tons 60
Figure 45. Dynamics of commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover of sea transport in Russia, 2008–2010, million tons, billion tkm 61
Figure 46. Sea freight rate indices in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, % to December of the previous year 62
Figure 47. Dynamics of the value of the sea freight market in Russia, 2007-2010, RUB billion 63
Figure 48. Dynamics of freight transshipment in Russian ports, 2007-2010, million tons, % 63
Figure 49. Structure of cargo handled in Russian sea ports by basin, 2010, % 64
Figure 50. Cargo transshipment volume in Russian ports distributed by major basins, 2008–2010, million tons 65
Figure 51. Monthly dynamics of commercial cargo transportation by inland water transport in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, million tons 69
Figure 52. Commercial cargo transportation volume and freight turnover of inland water transport in Russia, 2008–2010, million tons, billion tkm 69
Figure 53. Freight rate indices for inland water transport in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, % to  December of the previous year 70
Figure 54. Dynamics of the value of the inland water freight market in Russia, 2007-2010, billion RUB 71
Figure 55. Shares of Russian airlines in the total volume of cargo and mail carried in Russia, 2010, % 73
Figure 56. Air freight rate indices in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, % to December of the previous year 74
Figure 57. Dynamics of GDP and foreign trade freight traffic in Russia, 2006-2012, % 76
Figure 58. Dynamics of export and import freight traffic in Russia, 2007-2012, % 76
Figure 59. Export and import freight traffic in Russia, 2005-2012, million ton 77
Figure 60. Share of China in Russia’s export freight traffic by commodity group, 2010, % 79
Figure 61. Distribution of Russia’s export freight traffic by recipient country, 2008-2010, % 80
Figure 62. Freight traffic index for major commodity groups exported by RF, January-June 2011 to January-June 2010, % 81
Figure 63. Distribution of import freight traffic in Russia by manufacturing country, 2008-2010, % 84
Figure 64. Import freight traffic index for major commodity groups, January-June 2011 to January-June 2010, % 85
Figure 65. Distribution of Russia’s foreign trade turnover (by the volume of cargo carried, excluding pipeline transport, via border crossings), 2010, % 86
Figure 66. Volume of foreign trade cargo carried by rail in Russia (export, import and transit traffic), 2007-2010, million tons 86
Figure 67. Dynamics of the volume of foreign trade cargo transportation by rail in Russia, 2010 versus 2009, % 87
Figure 68. Volume of export, import and transit cargo handled in Russian sea ports, 2007–2011, million tons 89
Figure 69. Structure of foreign trade cargo transshipped in Russian sea ports distributed by basins, 2010, million tons, % 89
Figure 70. Volume of liquid export cargo transshipments in Russian ports distributed by basins, 2009-2010 million tons 90
Figure 71. Volume of export dry cargo transshipments in Russian ports distributed by basins, 2009-2010, million tons 90
Figure 72. Volume of import dry cargo transshipments in Russian ports distributed by basins, 2009-2010, million tons 91
Figure 73. Volume of freight transportation by road between Russia and foreign countries, 2005-2010, million tons 92
Figure 74. Ratio between volumes of import and export cargo transportation on the market for international road transport, 2009-2010, % 93
Figure 75. Structure of containerized exports in Russia, 2010, % 95
Figure 76. Distribution of containerized export traffic from Russia in 2008-2010 by recipient country, % 98
Figure 77. Structure of containerized imports in Russia, 2010, % 99
Figure 78. Distribution of import container traffic to Russia by manufacturing country, 2008-2010, % 101
Figure 79. Dynamics of transshipment of Russian foreign trade cargoes in ports, 2005-2011, million TEUs 102
Figure 80. Dynamics of the Russian container market by the volume of foreign trade cargo handled in Russian and foreign ports, 2007-2011, million TEUs 103
Figure 81. Volume of containerized export, import and transit cargo handled in Russian sea ports, 2008-2010, thousand TEUs 103
Figure 82. Dynamics of container transshipment volume in Russian sea basins, 2010 versus 2009, % 104
Figure 83. Container transshipment volume in Russian sea basins, 2008 and 2010, thousand TEUs 105
Figure 84. Dynamics of container transshipment volumes (export, import, transit) in Russian sea basins, 2010 versus 2008, % 105
Figure 85. Distribution of transshipment of foreign trade container cargoes by Russian sea basins, 2010, % 106
Figure 86. Structure of traffic of large-tonnage containers carried by rail on international routes, 2007-2010, % 108
Figure 87. Value structure of the Russian container transport market by mode of transport, 2010, % 110
Figure 88. Dynamics of the amount of high quality warehousing space in Russia, 2008-2011, million m2 115
Figure 89. Amount of high quality warehousing space in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2008-2011, million m2 115
Figure 90. Regional structure of high quality warehousing space in Russia, 2010, % 116
Figure 91. Distribution of high quality warehousing space by Russian regions (excluding Moscow and the Moscow Region, Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region), June 2011, thousand m2, % 116
Figure 92. Dynamics of the amount of high quality commercial warehousing space in Russia, 2008-2011, million m2 117
Figure 93. Amount of high quality warehousing space in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2008-2011, million m2 117
Figure 94. Value of the Russian warehousing services market, 2008-2011, $ billion 118
Figure 95. Dynamics of the value of the warehousing services market, 2008-2011, RUB billion, % 119
Figure 96. Value of the market for services provided in high quality warehouses in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2008-2010, $ billion 119
Figure 97. Value of the market for services provided in high quality warehouses in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2009-2010, % versus the previous year 120
Figure 98. Dynamics of revenues of transportation and logistics companies operating in Russia in ruble terms, 2009 versus 2008, % 122
Figure 99. Revenues of the largest transportation and logistics companies operating in Russia, 2009-2010, $ million 123
Figure 100. Dynamics of GDP, industrial production and retail turnover in Russia, 2004-2010, forecast for 2011-2014, % 130
Figure 101. Forecast for growth of freight turnover of transportation companies by mode of transport, 2010-2014, billion tkm 133
Figure 102. Forecast for growth of the Russian freight transportation market by mode of transport (including revenues from transhipment in ports and airports), 2010-2014, RUB billion 134
Figure 103. Value structure of the Russian freight transportation market by mode of transport, 2014 (forecast), % 135
Figure 104. Forecast for dynamics of the amount of high quality warehousing space in Russia, 2008-2014, million m2 136
Figure 105. Forecast for growth of the amount of high quality warehousing space in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2011-2014, million m2 137
Figure 106. Forecast for dynamics of the value of the Russian warehousing services market, 2008-2014, RUB billion 137
Figure 107. Forecast for dynamics of the value of the Russian warehousing services market, 2008-2014, $ billion 138
Figure 108. Forecast for dynamics of the Russian market of transportation and logistics services, 2008-2014, RUB billion and % 138
Figure 109. Forecast for dynamics of the Russian market of transportation and logistics services, 2008-2014, $ billion and % 139
Figure 110. Forecast for growth of the Russian transportation and logistics services market segments, 2010-2014, RUB billion 140

 

Table 1. Global container traffic on major routes, 2008-2009, million TEUs 19
Table 2. Global logistics costs and turnover in the 3PL services segment by region, 2009, $ billion, % 24
Table 3. Volume and structure of the European transport and logistics market by country, 2008, € billion, % 25
Table 4. Volume and structure of the European 3PL market by country, 2009, € billion, % 26
Table 5. Volume and dynamics of the Chinese logistics outsourcing market, 2005-2009, RMB billion, US$ billion and % 29
Table 6. Key indicators of Russia's economic development, 2008-2010, % versus the corresponding period in the previous year 32
Table 7. Comparison of GDP, logistics costs and key indicators of transport and logistics markets in the U.S., Europe, China and Russia, 2009, $ billion 37
Table 8. Evident risks and consequences of the economic crisis for the Russian transport and logistics services market 37
Table 9. Average annual exchange rate of US dollar, 2006-2011, RUB/US$ 38
Table 10. Inflation level and rail freight rates in Russia, 2006-2011, % 39
Table 11. Volume of 2PL and 3PL segments of the Russian transport and logistics services market, 2010, $ billion, % 42
Table 12. Volume of the Russian 3PL market (gross and net revenue of 3PL providers), 2007-2011, $ billion and % 42
Table 13. Dynamics of commercial freight transportation across all sectors by mode of transport in Russia, 2008-2010, million tons, % 43
Table 14. Dynamics of commercial freight turnover across all sectors by mode of transport in Russia, 2008-2010, billion tkm, % 44
Table 15. Dynamics of commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover by mode of public transport in Russia, 2009-2010, million tons, billion tkm, % 45
Table 16. Russian transportation services market value by major segments (including revenues from transshipment in ports and airports), 2007-2010, RUB billion and % 48
Table 17. Handling volumes of primary types of cargo on JSCo RZD network, 2008-2010, million tons 50
Table 18. Indexation of rail freight rates in Russia, 2006-2011, % 51
Table 19. Freight revenues (income) of JSCo RZD subsidiaries from freight transportation, 2007-2010, RUB billion 52
Table 20. Cargo transportation volume and freight turnover of road transport in Russia, 2008-2010, million tons, billion tkm 58
Table 21. Volume of freight transportation by Russian sea transport, 2007-2010, million tons 61
Table 22. Volume of freight transportation by sea transport, January-June 2010 - January-June 2011, million tons, % 61
Table 23. Transshipment volumes in Russian sea ports (major ports and basins), 2009-2010, million tons, % 65
Table 24. Value of the Russian market for sea transportation and stevedoring services, 2008-2010, RUB million, % 67
Table 25. Cargo transportation volume and freight turnover of inland water transport in Russia, 2008-2010, million tons and billion tkm 68
Table 26. Cargo carried by inland water transport, January-June 2011, million tons, % 69
Table 27. Value of the Russian market for inland water freight transportation and stevedoring services in river ports, 2008-2010, RUB billion, % 71
Table 28. Ranking of the TOP 15 airlines in Russia by freight turnover and volume of cargo and mail carried, 2008-2010 (international and domestic services), million tkm, thousand tons 73
Table 29. Value of major air logistics market segments (cargo transportation), 2008-2010, RUB billion 75
Table 30. Export freight traffic volume distributed by major commodity groups, 2008-2010, million tons and % 78
Table 31. Volume of import freight traffic distributed by consolidated commodity groups, 2008-2010, million tons, % 82
Table 32. Volume of import freight traffic of mechanical engineering products in Russia, 2008-2010, thousand tons, % 83
Table 33. Volume of import freight traffic distributed by major commodity groups (4-digit TN VED codes), 2008-2010, thousand tons and % 83
Table 34. Distribution of the volume of export and import cargo transportation by rail in Russia by route, 2009-2010, million tons 87
Table 35. Volume of Russian foreign trade cargo handled in Russian, Baltic and Ukrainian sea ports, 2008-2010, million tons 88
Table 36. International container transportation in Russia, 2004-2010, million tons 94
Table 37. Volume and level of containerization of foreign trade freight traffic in Russia, 2008-2010, million tons, % 94
Table 38. Dynamics of export container traffic in Russia by consolidated commodity group, 2008-2010, thousand tons, % 95
Table 39. Dynamics of containerized export traffic from Russia by major commodity group, 2008-2010, thousand tons, % 96
Table 40. Export cargo containerization level in Russia by major commodity group, 2008-2010, % 97
Table 41. Dynamics of import container traffic in Russia by major commodity group, 2008-2010, thousand tons, % 99
Table 42. Containerization level for Russian export cargoes by major commodity group, 2008-2010, % 100
Table 43. Dynamics of containerized imports in Russia by major manufacturing country, 2008-2010, thousand tons, % 102
Table 44. Structure of the Russian container market by the volume of foreign trade and transit cargo handled in ports, 2008-2010, thousand TEUs, % 106
Table 45. Transportation of large-tonnage containers by rail on international routes, 2007-2010, thousand TEUs 107
Table 46. Dynamics of the volume of the container transportation market distributed by major segment, 2008-2010, million TEUs and % 109
Table 47. Evaluation of vacancy rates for high quality commercial warehousing space in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2010, million m2 118
Table 48. Volume of the Russian market for warehousing services provided in high quality warehouses, 2007-2010, million m2, RUB billion, $ billion 119
Table 49. Revenues of major transportation and logistics companies in Russia, 2009-2010, $ million 123
Table 50. M&A deals on the Russian transport and logistic services market, 2008-2011. 125
Table 51. Dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators (RF MED's baseline scenario), 2008-2014, 2008=100% 130
Table 52. Forecast for key indicators of Russia's economic development (RF MED's baseline scenario), 2009-2014, % versus the previous year 131
Table 53. Forecast for dynamics of commercial freight turnover by mode of public transport in Russia, 2008- 2014, billion tkm, % 132
Table 54. Forecast for dynamics of the value of the freight transportation market by mode of public transport inRussia, 2008- 2014, RUB billion, % 133
Table 55. Forecast for changes in the value and structure of the Russian transportation services market (including revenues from cargo transshipment in ports and airports), 2010-2014, RUB billion, % 135
Table 56. Forecast for dynamics of the value of Russian transportation and logistics services market segments, 2008-2014, RUB billion, % 139
Table 57. Forecast for dynamics of the Russian market for 3PL services (gross and net revenues of 3PL providers), 2008-2014, $ billion and % 140