The 12th edition of marketing research "FMCG Retail Trade Chains in Russia" is devoted to analysis of the development of Russian food retail chains in 2013 and in the first half of 2014. The past year 2013 was relatively successful for FMCG retail trade, new stores were opened, chains continued their expansion, having entered the regions that were new for them. However the economic situation began to deteriorate and in 2014 political risks of the industry increased.
RBC.research's marketing research report describes the current state of the retail chain market, analyzes key mid-term development trends, provides an estimate of the market volume in 2013 - 2014, and possible scenarios and forecasts of its development from 2015 to 2017 factoring in various development scenarios of the Russian economy.
This work includes an analysis of structural changes in retail chain formats (supermarkets, hypermarkets, discounters and neighbourhood retailers), key characteristics of Russian chains (average chack, average selling space, size of product range, sales per square meter of selling space, etc.). The research also analyses current business strategies of Russian and foreign food retail operators, their advantages and disadvantages.
The following methods were used in carrying out the research:
- questionnaire survey of retail chains
- interviews with representatives of retail chains
- desk research
- analysis of statisitical data of the RF Federal Customs Service (FCS)
- analysis of State Statistics Agency (Rosstat) data
Research conducted from April through August, 2014.ANNOTATION | 2 | ||
Contents | 3 | ||
List of figures | 4 | ||
List of tables | 5 | ||
Summary | 7 | ||
Russian economic development trends in 2013 and forecast for 2014-2016 | 8 | ||
Russian economy in 2013 and estimation for 2014 | 8 | ||
Data for the first half of 2014 | 12 | ||
Forecast for the development of the Russian economy in 2015-2017 | 13 | ||
Retail trade development in 2013 and development forecast for 2014-2017 | 18 | ||
Consumer inflation | 19 | ||
Food retail chain market | 21 | ||
Development indicators of food retail market in 2013 and the first half of 2014 | 24 | ||
Market development trends in the medium term | 34 | ||
Expert opinions on the current situation and prospects for the development of the Russian FMCG retail | 35 | ||
Food retail logistics | 41 | ||
Consumer behavior and higher food prices | 45 | ||
Structure of food retail formats in 2013 | 52 | ||
Discounters | 54 | ||
Supermarkets | 55 | ||
Hypermarkets/cash & carry | 56 | ||
Neighborhood stores | 57 | ||
Key characteristics of Russian retail chains | 60 | ||
Common characteristics (average selling space, number of staff and footfall rate in stores) | 60 | ||
Range of food and non-food goods | 62 | ||
Private label goods | 63 | ||
Average check and sales per meter of selling space | 66 | ||
Ratings of leading retail chains as of year-end 2013 | 68 | ||
M&A deals in the food retail segment | 78 | ||
Medium-term development forecast | 80 | ||
Main trends in the development of retail trade in Russia in 2013-2016 | 82 | ||
Main trends in the development of formats in 2013-2016 | 85 | ||
Regional development of retail chains | 89 | ||
Macroeconomic indicators | 89 | ||
Central Federal District | 96 | ||
Northwestern Federal District | 98 | ||
Urals Federal District | 100 | ||
Volga Federal District | 102 | ||
Southern Federal District | 104 | ||
Siberian Federal District | 105 | ||
| Fig. 1. Nominal volume of Russian GDP, RUB billion, 2008-2013, forecast for 2014-2017 | 16 |
| Fig. 2. Comparison of actual growth rates of key indicators of the economy, %, 2008-2013 , forecast for 2014-2017 | 17 |
| Fig. 3. Contribution of trade sector to added value of Russian GDP (derived), % 2004-2013 | 21 |
| Fig. 4. Structure of retail trade formation by business entities in 2013 (in 2012) | 22 |
| Fig. 5. Structure of retail trade formation by business entities in the first half of 2014 (in the first half of 2013) | 23 |
| Fig. 6. Stages of development of Russian food retail | 24 |
| Fig. 7. LFL revenue growth (RUB) of several retail trade chains, %, 2007-2013 | 27 |
| Fig. 8. Share of food retail chains in Russian retail trade turnover (RUB), 2007-2013 | 29 |
| Fig. 9. Degree of consolidation of food retail in Russia - share of the top 10 companies, 2007-2013 | 30 |
| Fig. 10. Revenue growth (RUB) of retailers - distribution by type of chains, %, 2008-2013 | 31 |
| Fig. 11. Dynamics of the structure of food retail chain revenue - distribution by type of chain, %, 2005-2013 | 32 |
| Fig. 12. Largest food retail market players (share of leading chains in total sales of organized food retail), 2013 | 33 |
| Fig. 13. Volume of high-quality warehousing facilities in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Russian regions, 2010-2013, mln sq. m. | 44 |
| Fig. 14. Dynamics of the volume of high-quality warehouse facilities in the RF, 2008-2013, mln sq. m and forecast for 2014 | 45 |
| Fig. 15. Opinion of Russians on food product quality, December 2013 (answer to a question "What food products do you accept as quality products?", % of respondents) | 47 |
| Fig. 16. Dynamics of prices for basic food products, %, 2010-2013 | 48 |
| Fig. 17. Structure of food retail trade based on chain formats, 2005-2013 | 52 |
| Fig. 18. Quantitative structure of Russian retail chains in the regions under study - distribution by type of outlets, as of Q2 of 2014 | 53 |
| Fig. 19. Sales growth of main retail trade formats in ruble terms, %, 2007-2013 | 58 |
| Fig. 20. Sales turnover of goods in the PL segment of retail food chains operating in Russia, billion Rub, 2004-2013, forecast for 2014 | 66 |
| Fig. 21. Dynamics of M&A deals in the food retail sector, 2004-2013 | 79 |
| Fig. 22. Number of M&A deals and average value of deal in the food retail sector, 2004-2013 | 80 |
| Fig. 23. Dynamics of key macroeconomic indices for the retail trade sector, %, 2008-2013, forecast for 2014-2017 | 81 |
| Fig. 24. Level of consolidation of the food retail chain business in Russia, %, forecast for 2014-2017 | 84 |
| Fig. 25. Structure of food retail sales by formats of trade chains, forecast for 2014-2015 | 86 |
| Fig. 26. Vector of development for the Russian food retail trade market, 2014-2017 | 87 |
| Fig. 27. Growth of retail sales by federal districts (% vs. respective period of the previous year in LFL prices), 2009-2013 | 89 |
| Fig. 28. Structure of retail sales by federal districts, 2013 | 90 |
| Fig. 29. Structure of retail chain sales by federal districts, 2013 | 92 |
| Fig. 30. Domination of chains in the federal districts of Russia, distribution by number of stores as of May-June 2014. | 93 |
| Fig. 31. Comparison of the largest Russian regions by retail sales and penetration rate of chain retail | 95 |
| Table 1. Key development indicators of the Russian economy, 2010-2013, % change vs. respective period of the previous year | 8 |
| Table 2. Key indicators of the forecast for the social and economic development | 10 |
| Table 3. Key performance indicators of the Russian economy in January-June 2014, % change vs. the respective period of the previous year | 12 |
| Table 4. Key indicators of the forecast for the social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2015 - 2017 | 14 |
| Table 5. Average annual exchange rates of major currencies, 2008-2013, forecast for 2014-2016 | 17 |
| Table 6. Structure of consumer price growth in 2010-2013, forecast for 2014-2017 | 19 |
| Table 7. Share of retail chains in total retail trade turnover (in effective prices, in %) 2009-2013 | 21 |
| Table 8. Distribution centers of major food retail chains as of the beginning of 2Q14 | 42 |
| Table 9. Average selling space of stores, distribution by formats, square meters, 2012-2013 | 60 |
| Table 10. Number of staff per store, distribution by formats, 2012-2013 | 61 |
| Table 11. Daily number of buyers per store (number of cash register receipts), distribution by formats, 2012-2013 | 62 |
| Table 12. Total range of goods, SKU, 2013-2014 | 62 |
| Table 13. Range of food products, SKU, 2013-2014 | 62 |
| Table 14. Range of non-food products, SKU, 2013-2014 | 63 |
| Table 15. Ratio of food and non-food products in the range of goods of a store on average by formats, %, 2013-2014 | 63 |
| Table 16. Company leaders by the share of private label goods in chain sales, %, 2013 | 63 |
| Table 17. Average check (including VAT) in stores of various formats, Rub, 2012-2013 | 66 |
| Table 18. Sales per square meter of selling space per year, Rub, 2012-2013 | 67 |
| Table 19. Comparison of average selling space of stores and average sales per square meter, distribution by formats, 2012-2013 | 67 |
| Table 20. Rating of retail trade chains by size of sales for 2013 | 68 |
| Table 21. Rating of retail trade chains by number of stores as of the beginning of Q2 2014 * - data as of June 2014** - estimated | 70 |
| Table 22. Rating of retail trade chains by size of selling space as of the beginning of 2014 * - estimated value | 73 |
| Table 23. Rating of retail trade chains by number of buyers as of 2013* - estimated value | 74 |
| Table 24. Rating by sales per square meter of selling space for 2013 | 76 |
| Table 25. Structure dynamics of retail sales in RF by federal districts, %, 2008-2013 | 90 |
| Table 26. Largest cities of Russia in terms of population and retail trade turnover per capita in 2013 | 91 |
| Table 27. Leading regions in terms of retail food chain volume, Rub mn, 2013 | 93 |
| Table 28. Structure of food retail chains in the Central Federal District, distribution by number of stores, 2012-2014 | 97 |
| Table 29. Structure of food retail chains in the North-West Federal District, distribution by the number of stores, 2012-2014 | 99 |
| Table 30. Structure of food retail chains in the Urals Federal District - distribution by number of stores, 2012-2014 | 101 |
| Table 31. Structure of food retail chains in the Volga Federal District - distribution by number of stores, 2012-2014 | 103 |
| Table 32. Structure of food retail chains in the Southern Federal District - distribution by number of stores - 2012 - 2014 | 104 |
| Table 33. Structure of food retail chains in the Siberian Federal District - distribution by number of stores, 2012 - 2014 | 106 |
| Table 34. Household penetration of chain stores - distribution by regions and store formats (as of April-June 2014) | 107 |
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