Commercial real estae market overview 2011

In 2011, the post-crisis trend of the decrease of the delivery volumes of high-quality areas remained in the office real estate market. All in all, 620 thous.sq.m. entered the market in 2011. 

Therefore, the aggregate volume of high-quality supply in the office real estate market of the Moscow Region amounted to about 11.3 mln.sq.m. by the end of 2011.

The activity in the rental and purchase market of high-quality office premises was rather high during 2011, which caused the decrease of the level of vacant premises against the background of serious decline of delivery volumes. At the end of 2011 the share of vacant premises in “A” class amounted to 10-12%, in “B” class—12-13%.

The trend of a gradual recovery of demand for high-quality office premises was preserved in 2011. The total volume of high-quality areas absorption for 2010 exceeded 700 thous.sq.m.

The rent of premises constituted 63% and the purchase of premises constituted 37% of all the incoming requests to Blackwood Company during 2011. Therefore, a gradual increase of the share of requests for the purchase, which constituted 13% for two years, continued.  

High indices of business activity during the whole 2011, supported by the trend of the decline of the delivery paces of new properties and the enlargement of deals made it possible to state a considerable growth of rental rates: by the results of 2011 the average rental rates increased by 10-15%.

At the end of 2011 the rental rates for “A” class office premises varied from $500 to $ 1,000 per sq.m. per year, in “B+” class the rates constituted $400-$750 per sq.m. per year, and in “B-” class the rates varied between $300 and $550 per sq.m.  per year (all the rates are indicated exclusive of VAT and OPEX).  

During 2011 the increase of supply of professional retail real estate inMoscowamounted to 295, 000 sq.m. of the total area (the rentable area—158, 000 sq.m., see the Spreadsheet). As the result, the aggregate volume of the market by the end of the year reached 6.1 mln. sq.m. of the total area (including 3.1 mln.sq.m. of retail area). The provision ofMoscowpopulation with high-quality retail areas by the end of 2011 amounted to 294 sq.m. of rentable area per 1,000 residents. By the results of 2011 the forecasted decline of the increase paces of new supply took place, which was caused by the decrease of development activity and absence of new projects of retail centers in the crisis period. 

During 2011, 6 retail centers with the total area of about 400, 000 sq.m. were announced inMoscow. However, it is necessary  to understand that their delivery to the market will take place during several years, that is why the increase paces of new supply in the nearest years will be preserved at a rather low level.

In 2011, the recovery of demand for professional retail real estate on the part of tenants, which started in 2010, continued. The market players’ activity caused the decline of the vacant areas level to the minimal indices of 1-3% in the most prestigious retail streets and in the most in-demand and popular retail-entertainment centers.

A gradual growth of rental rates in the professional retail real estate market, which began at the end of 2010, continued in 2011. It should be noted that if in 2010 it was the rates in the street retail segment that grew higher in relative terms, then during the last year the segment of retail centers displayed a more considerable growth (approximately 5-15% in the most successful and popular properties).

During2012 alow increase pace of new supply will probably be preserved in the professional retail real estate market. In the absence of new economic shocks, the recovery of buyers’ activity, which will contribute to the further expansion of programs of retail operators’ development, will continue. Against the decelerated increase of new supply it will contribute to a gradual growth of rental rates.

In 2011, the increase of new supply in the hotel market ofMoscowamounted to 1,144 rooms, whish was considerably lower than the indices of 2010 (almost 1,900 rooms), however, it stayed at the pre-crisis level. The decline of the increase paces of new supply to the pre-crisis level will positively influence the recovery process of the hotel market ofMoscow. If in 2010 the market players observed the growth of occupancy rate and stabilization of financial indices, than in 2011, many hotels managed to display the growth of income measure per room.

International hotel operators’ activity in regional cities remained at stably high level: 9 hotels with the aggregate hotel room capacity  of about 1, 900 rooms were opened during 2011. Besides, during 2011 more than 25 new projects with the total room capacity of about 6,000 rooms were announced (which include 6 hotels for 2,000 rooms inMoscow). The terms of new projects delivery to the market stretched for the nearest 2-5 years, that is why the increase of new supply will be gradual without abrupt leaps. However, the markets of many large regional cities will come close to the saturation threshold due to the opening of new properties.